Financial Fiction Review: ‘The Billion Dollar Sure Thing’ By Paul E. Erdman

Love financial fiction? So do I. And I review them for you!

In this post I’m reviewing…


The Billion Dollar Sure Thing by Paul E. Erdman

The purest form of financial fiction… one of the originals!

The Billion Dollar Sure Thing by Paul E. Erdman

OVERVIEW: The Billion Dollar Sure Thing is THE original financial fiction book! It’s set in the mid-1970’s when America’s currency (which had been decoupled from the gold standard) was facing devaluation. In spite of the decoupling from gold, the US currency was still the financial standard of the day. (That much is true). In the book, the US President is concerned that various European governments are grouping together to take control of the financial markets away from the US dollar, so the President takes a financial gamble to recouple the dollar to the gold standard. Along the way, several different groups from all over the world attempt to profit from the potential financial ripples that this change will create.

REVIEW: This book, written in 1973, is Paul E. Erdman’s first book. Erdman had worked in the financial industry for many years before this book was written, so it’s not surprising that his experience and knowledge comes through. The style is classic 1970’s fiction: I don’t just mean that the telephones require talking to operators or that gold is valued at $100 an ounce… I mean, it’s slightly racist, slightly misogynistic, everyone has a mustache, and there’s always a layer of cold war anti-Russian fear lingering on every page. Just like every other 1970’s work of fiction. If you can get past that, it’s a great financial fiction book. I read this book before — many years ago — and didn’t love it at the time; I just didn’t like the old school feeling of the book, plus I barely understood what was going on. Since then, I’ve spent nearly a decade in the financial industry (or closely associated with it) and have a stockbroker’s license and an MBA… and those things really help. haha

I’ll warn you, this book is actually pretty advanced, financially. Although the author does try to explain everything, there are times when some readers may wonder what’s going on if they’re not experienced with the financial markets. This book covers currency, FOREX, shorting, and futures trading, so it can be heavy reading if you’re not familiar with those things.

Like many books of the age (which always trumpet “soon to be a major motion picture!” across the cover), the book includes plenty of international intrigue. In this book, characters zip back and forth between many of the major financial centers and power centers of the world — Washington, New York, London, Zurich, Moscow, and Beirut — as they make deals with different groups (all of whom end up being an ethnic stereotype, a la 1970’s fiction).

But what makes this book a “pure” financial fiction (in my opinion) is that it’s not about murder (which a lot of financial fiction books include in order to ramp up the conflict in the book) but it’s really just about a lot of people trying to make A LOT of money. Period. So if that’s enough of a conflict to motivate you to read the book then you’ll love this book.

I loved the deep financial aspect of the book and the purity of the financial storyline. And as you can probably infer from my earlier comments, the book does feel dated in many ways… so make sure you read it with an understanding that it’s a slice of fiction written in a very different time. (In some ways that adds some context and authenticity to the book, even if it does get distracting).

FINANCIAL FICTION QUOTIENT: As I’ve said, this book is the granddaddy of financial fiction and the financial quotient is VERY high and fairly advanced.
Here’s a quote from page 210-211 of my copy of the book to give you an example:

“… in the foreign exchange department, the phones had just begun to light up. At eight forty-five twenty traders went into action simultaneously. The Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt was offering $25 million spot. The General Bank agreed to take them at the rate of 3.3015, the absolute floor price for the dollar, a level that had never been reached before. The Deutsche Bank accepted. The Credit Lyonaise in Paris offered $50 million. They did not like the price. They would come back in ten or fifteen minutes. The Banque do Bruxelles wanted to sell $35 million three months forward. The trader consulted Zimmerer. They decided to put a 5 percent discount on the forward dollar: they offered Brussels the corresponding rate of 3.136. They did not even hesitate but accepted immediately. Two minutes later the Bana Nazionale de Lavoro was offered the same rate on $50 million. They also accepted. The traders huddled with Zimmerer. The decided to drop the three months forward rate another full percent. Then came the break.”

That’s just one small example that is fairly easy to follow. There are many others. If you like that kind of thing, as I do, then you’ll enjoy the book.

SUMMARY: Eerdman’s work is financially solid and engaging, although there are times when his experience may outpace the reader’s ability to understand. And although the book is dated, it’s still a great story of big money. If you’re into financial fiction, you should read this book just because it started the whole thing.

Click here to check out Paul E. Erdman’s The Billion Dollar Sure Thing on Amazon.

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Aaron Hoos

Aaron Hoos is a writer, strategist, and investor who builds and optimizes profitable sales funnels. He is the author of The Sales Funnel Bible and he's a real estate investor and a copywriter for real estate investors.