Financial Fiction Review: ‘The Billion Dollar Sure Thing’ By Paul E. Erdman

Love financial fiction? So do I. And I review them for you!

In this post I’m reviewing…

The Billion Dollar Sure Thing by Paul E. Erdman

The purest form of financial fiction… one of the originals!

The Billion Dollar Sure Thing by Paul E. Erdman

OVERVIEW: The Billion Dollar Sure Thing is THE original financial fiction book! It’s set in the mid-1970’s when America’s currency (which had been decoupled from the gold standard) was facing devaluation. In spite of the decoupling from gold, the US currency was still the financial standard of the day. (That much is true). In the book, the US President is concerned that various European governments are grouping together to take control of the financial markets away from the US dollar, so the President takes a financial gamble to recouple the dollar to the gold standard. Along the way, several different groups from all over the world attempt to profit from the potential financial ripples that this change will create.

REVIEW: This book, written in 1973, is Paul E. Erdman’s first book. Erdman had worked in the financial industry for many years before this book was written, so it’s not surprising that his experience and knowledge comes through. The style is classic 1970’s fiction: I don’t just mean that the telephones require talking to operators or that gold is valued at $100 an ounce… I mean, it’s slightly racist, slightly misogynistic, everyone has a mustache, and there’s always a layer of cold war anti-Russian fear lingering on every page. Just like every other 1970’s work of fiction. If you can get past that, it’s a great financial fiction book. I read this book before — many years ago — and didn’t love it at the time; I just didn’t like the old school feeling of the book, plus I barely understood what was going on. Since then, I’ve spent nearly a decade in the financial industry (or closely associated with it) and have a stockbroker’s license and an MBA… and those things really help. haha

I’ll warn you, this book is actually pretty advanced, financially. Although the author does try to explain everything, there are times when some readers may wonder what’s going on if they’re not experienced with the financial markets. This book covers currency, FOREX, shorting, and futures trading, so it can be heavy reading if you’re not familiar with those things.

Like many books of the age (which always trumpet “soon to be a major motion picture!” across the cover), the book includes plenty of international intrigue. In this book, characters zip back and forth between many of the major financial centers and power centers of the world — Washington, New York, London, Zurich, Moscow, and Beirut — as they make deals with different groups (all of whom end up being an ethnic stereotype, a la 1970’s fiction).

But what makes this book a “pure” financial fiction (in my opinion) is that it’s not about murder (which a lot of financial fiction books include in order to ramp up the conflict in the book) but it’s really just about a lot of people trying to make A LOT of money. Period. So if that’s enough of a conflict to motivate you to read the book then you’ll love this book.

I loved the deep financial aspect of the book and the purity of the financial storyline. And as you can probably infer from my earlier comments, the book does feel dated in many ways… so make sure you read it with an understanding that it’s a slice of fiction written in a very different time. (In some ways that adds some context and authenticity to the book, even if it does get distracting).

FINANCIAL FICTION QUOTIENT: As I’ve said, this book is the granddaddy of financial fiction and the financial quotient is VERY high and fairly advanced.
Here’s a quote from page 210-211 of my copy of the book to give you an example:

“… in the foreign exchange department, the phones had just begun to light up. At eight forty-five twenty traders went into action simultaneously. The Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt was offering $25 million spot. The General Bank agreed to take them at the rate of 3.3015, the absolute floor price for the dollar, a level that had never been reached before. The Deutsche Bank accepted. The Credit Lyonaise in Paris offered $50 million. They did not like the price. They would come back in ten or fifteen minutes. The Banque do Bruxelles wanted to sell $35 million three months forward. The trader consulted Zimmerer. They decided to put a 5 percent discount on the forward dollar: they offered Brussels the corresponding rate of 3.136. They did not even hesitate but accepted immediately. Two minutes later the Bana Nazionale de Lavoro was offered the same rate on $50 million. They also accepted. The traders huddled with Zimmerer. The decided to drop the three months forward rate another full percent. Then came the break.”

That’s just one small example that is fairly easy to follow. There are many others. If you like that kind of thing, as I do, then you’ll enjoy the book.

SUMMARY: Eerdman’s work is financially solid and engaging, although there are times when his experience may outpace the reader’s ability to understand. And although the book is dated, it’s still a great story of big money. If you’re into financial fiction, you should read this book just because it started the whole thing.

Click here to check out Paul E. Erdman’s The Billion Dollar Sure Thing on Amazon.

Find more financial fiction reviews here.

Here’s what you should do if you want to start a business but are stuck in a job

A lot of people have a job but would rather start a business. Problem is, they feel stuck.

… They feel stuck in their job because it pays them a predictable paycheck every week and they need to pay the mortgage and put food on the table rather than risk starting a business and not knowing whether they’ll be able to pay their mortgage during the early start-up days.

Friends, former coworkers, potential clients — many of the folks I know are in the same boat. Just recently someone reached out because they were facing exactly this scenario: They want to start a business, they have entrepreneurial aspirations, but they weren’t ready yet to give up the predictability and assurance of a paycheck.

HERE’S THE ADVICE I GIVE TO EVERYONE WHO IS STUCK IN A JOB AND WANTS TO QUIT

(The good news: It’s easy and fun to do, and there’s ZERO risk).

First, decide what problem you want to solve and determine what target market you want to serve. (Check out this blog post about how to research niche markets).

As well, start thinking about how you’ll solve this problem and serve this target market. You do not need to nail down a specific product or service that you’ll offer, although you should start thinking about it. However, you do not need to have a product or service yet, nor do you need to figure out price, etc.

Second, build a website about that problem and the solution. You can create a free website on a site like blogger.com or wordpress.com, although it doesn’t cost very much (and it looks way more professional) if you build a website that you pay for (i.e. buy a URL and get it hosted on a server). It’s simple and affordable (maybe $100 a year) and it gives you a ton more credibility.

Once you’ve built the site, just start writing about the problem and solution. I recommend a blog, although you don’t have to use a blog. But I do recommend that you blog about the problem and the solution regularly. At least twice a month, although you should probably blog about it a little more frequently than that. (Once a week is great).

Blog. Blog. Blog. Just keep blogging. Keep it simple, have fun, and most important, be helpful! Don’t worry about giving away your secret sauce too early; just add value to your audience and get them reading your site and listening to you.

The reality is, you probably won’t get much traction in the early weeks or months. That’s okay. There’s a few things going on here:

  1. You’re building a great foundation of content that will benefit you later
  2. You’re positioning yourself as an expert
  3. You’re testing the water to make sure you enjoy it and can sustain talking about it

… and of course you’re doing all that without quitting your job; you can do it about half an hour a week, in an evening. Easy!

Third, start sharing your content on other sites. Slowly start building marketing accounts at sites like Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, and start participating on industry forums. Don’t aggressively market, just start building content and interacting with people who find you there. Expect this to take a few weeks or months. That’s okay. Just keep working and having fun building this foundational component.

Fourth, assuming you’ve done the first three steps correctly, and a few months have passed and you’re now starting to get some traffic and some people listening to you, then you can decide what to do. I would consider building an email list at this point using a service like Aweber. Sign up for Aweber and add a contact form to your website. Then website visitors will add their email address to the contact form and you can start emailing them to connect with them on a deeper level. Again, expect to take a few weeks or even months to do this. There’s no rush.

Fifth, at this point, you should start thinking about something to sell. If at all possible, start with a content-based product that you can create and sell for passive income (such as an ebook or video training). That’s the best option, because it allows you to do this all while you’re still working.

If it’s impossible to start with a content-based product (for example, if you want to start a service-based business) then you need to make a decision:

  • Are you able to provide the service in the evenings and weekends? If so, you might consider starting that way. Lots of businesses start that way and it doesn’t take long to ramp up from there.
  • Are you able to outsource your customer leads to someone who can run the business? If you can sell your leads to someone else, or hire someone to perform the service for you, then you’re good. No need to quit your job if you don’t want to.
  • Or, you might have enough work to quit… then go ahead.

The easiest way to do assess whether or not you have enough potential business to quit your job is to do this: Send out an email to the list of contacts you built in the previous step and say, “Hey, I have some availability in about two weeks. You can hire me to (… do whatever service you’re selling). If you’re interested, just reply back.” If no one replies, there’s your answer. If people do reply, give them a small discount if they pay in advance so you have some cash flow during the transition. Then march into your boss’ office and hand in your two week’s notice.

QUESTIONS PEOPLE ASK ME ABOUT THIS METHOD

How long does it take to get this going? It takes only a few minutes to set it up and only about 30 minutes to an hour each week to keep it going. But the time to get to the point where you can quit your job, that part depends on you: You could be looking at weeks, months, or even years, depending on the target market you chose, the problem they feel and the solution you offer, how much you charge, and how much you position yourself. But I’ve seen this work over and over, and I’ve seen it take as little as 2-3 weeks. If you want, you can do this over a period of years; there’s no rush.

How much does it cost (or, can I use free services?) You CAN do this entirely for free. Actually, this is exactly what I did way back when I first started (using a blogger-based blog and a yahoo email address!) However, I wouldn’t recommend it. Setting this up doesn’t cost much — maybe $250 a year, max — but the level of professionalism that you achieve with that investment is priceless. Plus, if your business grows really big, you’ll need to eventually switch over to a regular (paid) site and that switch can be challenging after all the marketing you built up to your original free site in the first place. So seriously consider a paid site.

What happens if someone contacts me to buy from me but I’m still working and can’t serve them? If you can, see if you can help them on an evening or weekend, if appropriate. Or, sell them as a lead to another company who can help them. Or, if neither of those two things are possible, just tell them that you’re fully booked and can’t serve them at this time.

What happens if it doesn’t work out? Great! You’ve lost nothing but some time. Consider selling the website to someone else or just shut it down and consider it an investment into an education.

NOW GET STARTED

This is a simple, painless, and even FUN way to build the foundation of a business with no risk. I would advise anyone with a job to start doing this right away, even if you love your job and don’t want to quit. This creates options for you down the road but doesn’t expose you to any downside today. You may be able to build up a business that will replace your income (or just augment it)… and it’s easy to do.

Here’s how I would fix restarts in NASCAR

I love NASCAR. Actually, I love all motorsports (but who has time to watch them all???)

But for the past couple of years, restarts have been a problem in NASCAR — frustrating for drivers and for fans — and those problems to be getting worse.

Restarts explained

Currently, when the field needs to restart, cars line up in 2 rows (the lead car gets to choose whether to drive the bottom line or the top line). I’ve created a rough diagram to approximate how cars are lined up. In this example, the lead car has chosen the lower line…

restarts now

As the field of cars comes around to the start/finish line (the dotted line in the diagram above), the lead car is expected to lead everyone by accelerating first. They can do this in a space leading up to the start/finish line called “the restart zone”.

If the lead driver hasn’t accelerated and taken the lead by the start/finish line then everyone can go… but the lead car can accelerate at any point inside the restart zone.

Here’s why restarts are a problem

Sometimes the lead car can’t accelerate as fast as everyone else. Maybe they have old tires or they spin their tires on a dirty track or they have a mechanical problem or they miss a gear… whatever… there are times when they don’t accelerate, and sometimes they even actually slow down.

This puts the second car in a very awkward position. The second car needs to keep pace with the first car but can’t pull ahead… but there are times when it happens because the lead car doesn’t go.

In the past few races, we’ve seen this happen a couple of notable times.

In the past couple of races we’ve seen it happen at Chicagoland and at New Hampshire (off the top of my head), and I think there was one in Richmond as well.

NASCAR has on-the-spot video reviews and they’ll sometimes black flag a driver for starting too early… but they don’t always seem very consistent about their rulings (at least from my perspective).

Even drivers don’t like it (check out this great video of drivers voicing their concern).

NASCAR has doubled the restart zone but I don’t think that’s the solution either.

Here’s what I would do if I were in charge of NASCAR (which I’m most definitely not!)

I would put the first driver on the very front, with all other drivers in paired formation behind the lead driver. Like this…

restarts improved

And then I would make a rule that the lead driver’s rear bumper had to pass over the start/finish line before any other car’s front bumper.

  • This ensures that the lead car always controls the race
  • It forces the lead driver to make some strategic decisions about which line to race (and gives them a slight advantage by allowing them the option to race either line)
  • It also forces subsequent cars (i.e. cars 2 and 3) to hold back, but…
  • It gives those subsequent cars the ability to speed up strategically prior to the start/finish line (and potentially pass the lead driver right after the start/finish line… as long as the lead driver’s rear bumper passes the start/finish line before the subsequent cars’ front bumpers).

I think this will make for restarts that are clearer (less confusion) and more exciting (better strategy opportunities for the lead car and the cars in the second and third spots).

It’s not likely that we’ll see this change anytime soon. But if I were in charge of NASCAR, that’s a change I would make.